The following has nothing to do with the result of the confidence motion. I have always believed that the govenment will win the trust vote simply because the inducements (read bribes) that the government can give because it has enormous power are unmatched by the opposition.
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Politics is a funny thing. Actually, life it self is a funny thing and politics is merely a showcase of life’s extremes.

Often in life a step taken to ward off an evil actually ends up making that very evil stronger and our own nemesis that much nigher. This is especially so if the step has not been well thought out, is a short term solution to a long term problem or is a knee-jerk reaction.

When the Samajwadi Party decided to back Congress and when Congress decided to take support from this party, each had its own evils to ward off. For SP, the evil was Mayavati. For Congress the evil was an imminant loss of power. There were no larger goals in the minds of the leaders of these parties. So it was a marriage of convenience.

But the incongruities should have been visible to both parties.

Let us take a look at the obvious incongruities for the SP. The entire base of this party is created out of the sizeable population of Muslims in UP. To this you add the Yadavs and a few other OBCs and SP’s vote bank is over. It was quite easy to see that even though a few Muslim leaders may have supported the nuclear deal, the Ulemas and the muslim masses which harbor a deep distrust for the US were against the deal. Did Mulayam not think that for a short term goal of weakening mayavati, he would end up destroying his very foundation and therefore end up strengthening Mayavati in the long term beyond her wildest dream? After all, Mayavati’s reach to Muslims is not as permanently marred as the BJP’s is. Her problem is only her past association with BJP. But did Mulayam not think that this problem will be bridged immediately if his own actions smacked of betrayal to the Muslims?

What has now happened is not something that could not have been foreseen. Left has always been the most egotistic party in India. When Congress preferred to cock a snook at them, the Left, with its ego tremendously hurt, is not leaving any stone unturned to see the fall of the government. In its desire to topple the government, it has colluded with Mayavati and has given her the most needed bridge to the Muslims.

For SP now the evil personified by Mayavati is even stronger and they cannot blame anyone else for it. Their actions have strengthened this evil.

For Congress, the situation is different but equally deleterious. All through it tenure, Congress pulled out all stops to woo back its Muslim vote bank. Prime Minister’s statement that Muslims have the first claim to the resources of this country, Sachar Committee, giving reservation to minorities in Congress ruled Andhra Pradesh bear testimony to this fact. Congress also stopped all economic reforms. Congress also tried to woo the OBCs by giving them reservations. The end result of these actions is rampant unhappiness among the middle and the upper class. And now Congress is trying to get the nuclear deal done to sort of showcase its success on the foreign policy front as well as show that it is prepared to do something for the infrastructure and the Indian economic boom.

The problem is that those who understand the nuclear deal are the middle and the upper class and they are already alienated. And those that Congress was wooing till now will stand alienated by its actions on the nuclear deal.

It does not matter what the result of the confidence motion is. Post this motion, both Congress and SP are going to emerge smelling of shit (even if they win the trust vote).

The two poles that will now fight the next election are the NDA and the UNPA.

Perhaps it is time now for that grand alliance between BJP and Congress that I have been talking about for more than a year now.

http://avinashjee.sulekha.com/blog/post/2008/07/consequences-of-the-trust-vote.htm